In the novel, STRANDED, differences between countries on Earth escalate into an all-out nuclear war. Apparently, world leaders did not, or would not, take their actions into account and predict, or understand, what the outcome would be. Why is it that some normal, everyday people are more capable of looking at a state of affairs, and predict the outcome, better than some highly trained strategists that have more info at their fingertips?
Why is it that people that see the same facts and situations, come to two totally opposite conclusions? And why is it that a 60 year old pharmacist, Elaine Rich, routinely forecasts world events 30% more accurately than professional intelligence officers?
You can read more about this fascinating phenomenon here: http://www.businessinsider.com/good-judgement-project-accurate-predictions-2014-4